{"id":1553,"date":"2021-05-25T15:55:42","date_gmt":"2021-05-25T18:55:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankshop.com.br\/?p=1553"},"modified":"2021-05-25T15:55:44","modified_gmt":"2021-05-25T18:55:44","slug":"o-dolar-americano-nao-esta-caindo-entenda-o-porque","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bankshop.com.br\/en\/2021\/05\/25\/o-dolar-americano-nao-esta-caindo-entenda-o-porque\/","title":{"rendered":"O d\u00f3lar americano n\u00e3o est\u00e1 caindo. Entenda o porqu\u00ea."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tendo em vista os artigos que temos compartilhado com voc\u00eas acerca do momento oportuno para compra de d\u00f3lar, gostar\u00edamos de destacar outra mat\u00e9ria da Bloomberg, a qual apresenta alguns fatos do porque n\u00e3o \u00e9 esperada uma queda do d\u00f3lar a longo prazo<\/em>. Com isso, refor\u00e7amos a estrat\u00e9gia de pre\u00e7o m\u00e9dio no momento do c\u00e2mbio, fugindo de altera\u00e7\u00f5es inesperadas da moeda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O d\u00f3lar americano n\u00e3o est\u00e1 caindo, n\u00e3o importa o que os ursos digam<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os ursos do d\u00f3lar est\u00e3o rugindo. Ray Dalio, fundador da gigante de fundos de hedge Bridgewater Associates, advertiu repetidamente que o d\u00f3lar corre o risco de perder seu status de moeda de reserva. Em mar\u00e7o, ele escreveu um post para o LinkedIn intitulado \u201cPor que no mundo voc\u00ea possuiria d\u00edvidas em d\u00f3lares?\u201d Stephen Roach, o ex-presidente do Morgan Stanley Asia, escreveu um artigo para a Bloomberg Opinion em janeiro com o t\u00edtulo \u201cA queda do d\u00f3lar est\u00e1 apenas come\u00e7ando\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c9 verdade que o d\u00f3lar tem estado fraco recentemente. O Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, que mede a moeda dos EUA em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a uma cesta de 10 outras moedas importantes, caiu 14% desde mar\u00e7o de 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mas mar\u00e7o de 2020 – quando os temores de uma pandemia causaram uma corrida aos ativos dos EUA – \u00e9 uma refer\u00eancia irreal. O decl\u00ednio do \u00edndice desde o in\u00edcio de 2020, antes de a pandemia atacar, \u00e9 inferior a 6%. E um \u00edndice mais amplo d\u00e1 uma imagem diferente. O amplo \u00edndice do d\u00f3lar do Federal Reserve, ajustado pela infla\u00e7\u00e3o, que cobre 26 moedas e \u00e9 calculado mensalmente, tem a seguinte apar\u00eancia:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A melhor medida do d\u00f3lar mostra pouca fraqueza<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Valor do d\u00f3lar em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a uma ampla cesta de moedas, ajustado pela infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Como voc\u00ea pode ver, o d\u00f3lar permanece na metade superior de sua faixa de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o desde 2006, quando o c\u00e1lculo do \u00edndice come\u00e7a. Nenhum sinal de acidente aqui.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claro, os ursos do d\u00f3lar poderiam argumentar, e fazer, que h\u00e1 problemas \u00e0 frente para a moeda porque os EUA est\u00e3o gastando demais e economizando de menos. O argumento \u00e9 que se os EUA n\u00e3o podem financiar todos os investimentos de que precisam por meio da poupan\u00e7a gerada em casa, ent\u00e3o ter\u00e3o que investir menos, o que resultar\u00e1 em fraqueza econ\u00f4mica de longo prazo, ou importar economias do exterior, o que ir\u00e1 pressionou a moeda para baixo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e3o \u00e9 um argumento maluco, mas a situa\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o \u00e9 t\u00e3o terr\u00edvel quanto \u00e9 retratada. A conta corrente \u00e9 a medida mais ampla do saldo dos EUA no com\u00e9rcio de bens e servi\u00e7os, bem como na receita de investimentos. Um pa\u00eds com um grande e cr\u00f4nico d\u00e9ficit em conta corrente pode ter problemas. Os EUA t\u00eam um d\u00e9ficit cr\u00f4nico em sua conta corrente, mas n\u00e3o \u00e9 enorme: 3% no \u00faltimo trimestre de 2020 contra quase 6% em 2006, quando foi inchado pela bolha imobili\u00e1ria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Em sua coluna Bloomberg Opinion, Roach apontou para a fraqueza na poupan\u00e7a interna l\u00edquida medida como uma parcela da renda nacional bruta. Ele escreveu: \u201cO decl\u00ednio de 3,8 pontos percentuais na taxa interna l\u00edquida para 0,9% negativo no segundo trimestre [de 2020] de uma taxa positiva de 2,9% no primeiro trimestre tamb\u00e9m foi a maior queda trimestral j\u00e1 registrada.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mas no quarto trimestre de 2020, a medida de economia sobre a qual Roach alertou voltou a cair em territ\u00f3rio positivo: 2,4%. A poupan\u00e7a maci\u00e7a das fam\u00edlias compensa os empr\u00e9stimos maci\u00e7os do governo federal. E isso n\u00e3o \u00e9 tudo, como mostra este gr\u00e1fico:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A economia bruta \u00e9 uma medida melhor do que a economia l\u00edquida<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economizando como parcela da renda nacional bruta<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Embora a medida de poupan\u00e7a l\u00edquida que Roach cita tenha ca\u00eddo visivelmente nas \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas, a poupan\u00e7a bruta se manteve significativamente melhor. A principal diferen\u00e7a entre os dois \u00e9 a deprecia\u00e7\u00e3o, que se tornou mais significativa porque, na economia de alta tecnologia, as coisas t\u00eam vidas \u00fateis mais curtas. Mas o colega s\u00eanior do Cato Institute, Alan Reynolds, apontou em 2018, em resposta a um artigo anterior de Roach, que medir a economia l\u00edquida em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 receita bruta \u00e9 comparar ma\u00e7\u00e3s com laranjas. Uma compara\u00e7\u00e3o direta \u00e9 a poupan\u00e7a bruta com a renda interna bruta (ou GDI, que \u00e9 igual ao produto interno bruto, ou PIB).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O d\u00f3lar americano desafiou repetidas previs\u00f5es de destrui\u00e7\u00e3o. \u00c9 prov\u00e1vel que sobreviva a essas previs\u00f5es de baixa tamb\u00e9m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fonte: https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2021-05-19\/the-u-s-dollar-is-not-crashing-no-matter-what-the-bears-say?sref=SAWL7ma3<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n



<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tendo em vista os artigos que temos compartilhado com voc\u00eas acerca do momento oportuno para compra de d\u00f3lar, gostar\u00edamos de destacar outra mat\u00e9ria da Bloomberg, a qual apresenta alguns fatos do porque n\u00e3o \u00e9 esperada uma queda do d\u00f3lar a longo prazo. Com isso, refor\u00e7amos a estrat\u00e9gia de pre\u00e7o m\u00e9dio no momento do c\u00e2mbio, fugindo […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1558,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_front_end_style_editor":"no","ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"0","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"off","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","entry","has-media"],"yoast_head":"\nO d\u00f3lar americano n\u00e3o est\u00e1 caindo. Entenda o porqu\u00ea. - Bankshop Investimentos<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bankshop.com.br\/en\/2021\/05\/25\/o-dolar-americano-nao-esta-caindo-entenda-o-porque\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"O d\u00f3lar americano n\u00e3o est\u00e1 caindo. Entenda o porqu\u00ea. - Bankshop Investimentos\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Tendo em vista os artigos que temos compartilhado com voc\u00eas acerca do momento oportuno para compra de d\u00f3lar, gostar\u00edamos de destacar outra mat\u00e9ria da Bloomberg, a qual apresenta alguns fatos do porque n\u00e3o \u00e9 esperada uma queda do d\u00f3lar a longo prazo. 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