{"id":2546,"date":"2024-07-05T15:11:48","date_gmt":"2024-07-05T18:11:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankshop.com.br\/?p=2546"},"modified":"2024-07-05T15:21:44","modified_gmt":"2024-07-05T18:21:44","slug":"perspectiva-do-centro-schwab-de-pesquisa-financeira","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bankshop.com.br\/en\/2024\/07\/05\/perspectiva-do-centro-schwab-de-pesquisa-financeira\/","title":{"rendered":"Atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado de t\u00edtulos \u2013 junho de 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prezados clientes,   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hoje, gostar\u00edamos de recomendar a leitura do artigo “Atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado de t\u00edtulos \u2013 junho de 2024”, publicado pela Charles Schwab. O artigo aborda as atualiza\u00e7\u00f5es do mercado de t\u00edtulos, focando em tr\u00eas \u00e1reas principais: t\u00edtulos municipais, t\u00edtulos corporativos e a vis\u00e3o geral do mercado de renda fixa. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Segue o artigo: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perspectiva do Centro Schwab de Pesquisa Financeira<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00b0 Curva de rendimentos do Tesouro ainda aponta para taxas mais baixas no futuro. A curva de rendimentos dos t\u00edtulos do Tesouro est\u00e1 invertida h\u00e1 quase dois anos, \u00e0 medida que o mercado continua a antecipar que a Reserva Federal reduzir\u00e1 as taxas de juro. Uma vez que o Fed come\u00e7ar a reduzir as taxas, a curva de rendimentos provavelmente ficar\u00e1 mais inclinada.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00b0 Os rendimentos reais s\u00e3o elevados. Os rendimentos ajustados pela infla\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e3o pr\u00f3ximos dos n\u00edveis mais elevados em mais de 15 anos, \u00e0 medida que o Fed mant\u00e9m a sua taxa diretora \u00e9 mantida enquanto a infla\u00e7\u00e3o diminui. Os rendimentos reais elevados tendem a restringir os empr\u00e9stimos e a desacelerar a economia, mas s\u00e3o atraentes para investidores.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00b0 Os alugu\u00e9is t\u00eam sustentado o IPC. As medidas em tempo real mostram que a infla\u00e7\u00e3o dos alugu\u00e9is est\u00e1 diminuindo, mas o Equivalente do Propriet\u00e1rio o aluguel (OER) no IPC est\u00e1 atrasado. Esperamos uma nova queda no segundo semestre do ano.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00b0 Os rendimentos de v\u00e1rios investimentos de rendimento fixo est\u00e3o em linha com os rendimentos dos t\u00edtulos do tesouro de curto prazo. Investidores que procuram travar rendimentos mais elevados no longo prazo podem considerar estender a dura\u00e7\u00e3o com outros tipos de t\u00edtulos com classifica\u00e7\u00e3o de investimento alternativas. Os investidores que det\u00eam investimentos de curto prazo provavelmente enfrentar\u00e3o o risco de reinvestimento assim que o Fed come\u00e7ar a cortar cota\u00e7\u00f5es.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A curva de rendimento invertida reflete a tend\u00eancia do mercado expectativas de que o pr\u00f3ximo movimento do Fed ser\u00e1 um corte\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Market matrix U.S. sell 3-month and buy U.S. 10-year bond yield spread (USYC3M10 Index). Daily data as of 5\/31\/2024. Gray shading is a recession. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A infla\u00e7\u00e3o deve apresentar tend\u00eancia de queda devido ao crescimento mais lento dos alugu\u00e9is\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg. U.S. BLS & Cleveland Fed New Tenant Index Repeat Rent NTRR 
YoY (CLEVNTRR Index) and U.S. CPI Urban Consumers Owners Equivalent Rent of 
Residences YoY NSA (CPRHOERY Index). Quarterly data as of 3\/31\/2024. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os rendimentos reais, os rendimentos ajustados pela infla\u00e7\u00e3o, est\u00e3o pr\u00f3ximos do n\u00edveis mais elevados em anos e s\u00e3o um sinal de que a pol\u00edtica \u00e9 rigorosa\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg. US Generic Govt TII 2 Yr (USGGT02Y INDEX), US Generic Govt TII 
10 Yr (USGGT10Y Index). Daily data as of 5\/31\/2024. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alguns investimentos de renda fixa podem proporcionar rendimentos t\u00e3o alto ou at\u00e9 maior que os t\u00edtulos do tesouro de curto prazo\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg, as of 5\/31\/2024.See appendix for indexes used. Indexes are 
unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in 
directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado de t\u00edtulos corporativos <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perspectiva do Centro Schwab de Pesquisa Financeira <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00b0 Os fundamentos empresariais permanecem fortes. Apesar das preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es sobre o impacto dos aumentos das taxas na economia,\u00a0os lucros das empresas permanecem perto dos seus m\u00e1ximos hist\u00f3ricos. Uma pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria \u201cmais alta por mais tempo\u201d deveria representar um risco maior\u00a0 para emitentes de elevado rendimento do que para emitentes com nota\u00e7\u00e3o de investimento, dadas as suas cargas de d\u00edvida mais elevadas e o elevado risco de refinanciamento.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00b0 Considerar estender o vencimento com empresas com grau de investimento. Embora a curva de rendimento do Tesouro permane\u00e7a profundamente\u00a0 t\u00edtulos corporativos invertidos com grau de investimento oferecem rendimentos competitivos em toda a curva, embora com uma pequena invers\u00e3o\u00a0na parte frontal. Embora tenham mais taxa de juros e risco de cr\u00e9dito, os t\u00edtulos corporativos de m\u00e9dio prazo geralmente\u00a0 oferecem rendimentos mais elevados do que os t\u00edtulos do Tesouro e os fundos do mercado monet\u00e1rio, e esses rendimentos elevados podem ser garantidos por mais tempo.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00b0 As obriga\u00e7\u00f5es empresariais de elevado rendimento n\u00e3o oferecem muita compensa\u00e7\u00e3o pelos riscos. Spreads de cr\u00e9dito de alto rendimento \u2013 o extra\u00a0rendimento que os t\u00edtulos corporativos oferecem acima dos t\u00edtulos do Tesouro compar\u00e1veis \u2013 oscilou em torno de 3% durante a maior parte de maio. Com spreads t\u00e3o baixos, os retornos excedent\u00e1rios relativos aos t\u00edtulos do Tesouro nos pr\u00f3ximos doze meses t\u00eam sido geralmente baixos.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00b0 Os t\u00edtulos preferenciais podem oferecer vantagens fiscais. Muitos (mas n\u00e3o todos) t\u00edtulos preferenciais pagam dividendos que s\u00e3o sujeitos a taxas de imposto mais baixas, o que pode torn\u00e1-los mais atrativos quando mantidos em contas tribut\u00e1veis.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os lucros corporativos diminu\u00edram modestamente no 1T24, mas permanecem\u00a0perto do m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg, using quarterly data as of 1Q24. US Corporate Profits With IVA and CCA Total SAAR (CPFTTOT Index). Past performance is no guarantee of future results <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retornos medianos do excesso de t\u00edtulos de alto rendimento em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com o faixa de spread inicial\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research with data from Bloomberg, using monthly data from January 1994 through May 2024. Excess return is a measure of performance of a spread security over that of an equivalent Treasury security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oferta corporativa com grau de investimento de m\u00e9dio prazo rendimentos t\u00e3o altos ou superiores aos t\u00edtulos do Tesouro\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg, as of 5\/31\/2024. US Treasury Actives Curve (YCGT0025 Index) and USD US Corporate IG BVAL Yield Curve (BVSC0076 Index). Past performance is no guarantee of future results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os t\u00edtulos preferenciais podem oferecer vantagens fiscais\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg, as of 5\/31\/2024. Indexes represented are the Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index, Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index, and the ICE BofA Fixed Rate Preferred Securities Index. The \u201c37%\u201d column makes the following assumptions: Investment-grade corporate and high-yield corporates include a 37% federal tax, a 5% state tax, and the 3.8% ACA tax; Preferred securities assume a 20% qualified dividend tax and the 3.8% Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax. Past performance is no guarantee of future results <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fonte: https:\/\/www.schwabassetmanagement.com\/content\/<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prezados clientes,    Hoje, gostar\u00edamos de recomendar a leitura do artigo “Atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado de t\u00edtulos \u2013 junho de 2024”, publicado pela Charles Schwab. O artigo aborda as atualiza\u00e7\u00f5es do mercado de t\u00edtulos, focando em tr\u00eas \u00e1reas principais: t\u00edtulos municipais, t\u00edtulos corporativos e a vis\u00e3o geral do mercado de renda fixa.  Segue o artigo:  Perspectiva do […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2555,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_front_end_style_editor":"no","ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[32,41,37,13,44],"class_list":["post-2546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-acoes","tag-bonds","tag-investimento","tag-investimentos","tag-renda-fixa","entry","has-media"],"yoast_head":"\nAtualiza\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado de t\u00edtulos \u2013 junho de 2024 - Bankshop Investimentos<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bankshop.com.br\/en\/2024\/07\/05\/perspectiva-do-centro-schwab-de-pesquisa-financeira\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado de t\u00edtulos \u2013 junho de 2024 - Bankshop Investimentos\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Prezados clientes,    Hoje, gostar\u00edamos de recomendar a leitura do artigo “Atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado de t\u00edtulos \u2013 junho de 2024”, publicado pela Charles Schwab. 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