{"id":1881,"date":"2021-09-14T10:42:45","date_gmt":"2021-09-14T13:42:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankshop.com.br\/?p=1881"},"modified":"2021-09-14T10:42:46","modified_gmt":"2021-09-14T13:42:46","slug":"dollar-outlook-can-the-rally-continue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bankshop.com.br\/es\/2021\/09\/14\/dollar-outlook-can-the-rally-continue\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Outlook: Can the Rally Continue?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Os investidores que det\u00eam ativos estrangeiros com exposi\u00e7\u00e3o ao d\u00f3lar dos EUA tiveram um passeio vol\u00e1til no ano at\u00e9 o momento: alta no primeiro trimestre, queda no segundo trimestre e recupera\u00e7\u00e3o no terceiro trimestre. Agora que o d\u00f3lar est\u00e1 perto da maior alta do ano, a alta pode continuar? Acreditamos que sim no curto prazo, embora nossa vis\u00e3o de longo prazo seja mais matizada. Aqui est\u00e1 o que vemos \u00e0 frente. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e1rios fatores apoiam a for\u00e7a do d\u00f3lar no curto prazo<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embora o d\u00f3lar esteja perto de sua maior alta no ano, \u00e9 prov\u00e1vel que obtenha suporte durante o pr\u00f3ximo ano das taxas de juros relativamente altas dos EUA – pelo menos, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com as de outros grandes pa\u00edses desenvolvidos – expectativas de pol\u00edticas mais r\u00edgidas do Federal Reserve, e a desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o do crescimento global. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

O d\u00f3lar est\u00e1 um pouco abaixo da alta deste ano<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg. Shows U.S. Federal Reserve Trade-Weighted Nominal Dollar Index (USTWBGD Index),a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other global currencies. Daily data as of 8\/27\/2021. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. As taxas de juros dos EUA s\u00e3o altas em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s taxas globais.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

 At\u00e9 agora, durante 2021, a for\u00e7a do d\u00f3lar foi impulsionada em grande parte pelo aumento nas taxas de juros dos EUA em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s de outros grandes pa\u00edses desenvolvidos. Embora os rendimentos dos EUA sejam baixos em termos reais – isto \u00e9, ajustados pela infla\u00e7\u00e3o – isso n\u00e3o foi suficiente para empurrar o d\u00f3lar para baixo. Parece que o mercado est\u00e1 vendo a recente alta da infla\u00e7\u00e3o como transit\u00f3ria. Al\u00e9m disso, no mundo carente de rendimento dos t\u00edtulos do governo, at\u00e9 mesmo os rendimentos insignificantes dos t\u00edtulos do Tesouro dos EUA parecem atraentes.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os rendimentos dos EUA est\u00e3o acima dos rendimentos de outros grandes pa\u00edses desenvolvidos<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 8\/26\/2021. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comparamos o rendimento dos t\u00edtulos do governo dos EUA de 10 anos com o rendimento m\u00e9dio dos t\u00edtulos do governo de 10 anos nos principais mercados desenvolvidos. Exceto pelas crises de liquidez do d\u00f3lar, o diferencial da taxa de juros tem uma forte rela\u00e7\u00e3o com a dire\u00e7\u00e3o do d\u00f3lar – normalmente subindo e descendo paralelamente. O diferencial da taxa de juros est\u00e1 atualmente dando suporte a um d\u00f3lar mais forte, pois est\u00e1 acima de 1% e est\u00e1 aumentando. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diferenciais de taxas de juros historicamente direcionam a dire\u00e7\u00e3o do d\u00f3lar<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg. Weekly data as of 8\/20\/2021. The 10-year interest rate differential compares the U.S. government bond yields with those of Germany, Canada, Japan, the U.K., Switzerland, Australia and Sweden. U.S. Federal Reserve Trade-Weighted Nominal Dollar Index (USTWBGD Index). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Global central bank policies should support the dollar.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

O d\u00f3lar subiu durante o ver\u00e3o, uma vez que os mercados esperavam que o Fed come\u00e7asse a reduzir suas compras de ativos nos pr\u00f3ximos meses. Em um discurso no Simp\u00f3sio Anual de Pol\u00edtica Econ\u00f4mica do Fed em Jackson Hole, Wyoming, em agosto, o presidente do Fed, Jerome Powell, preparou os mercados para um an\u00fancio de redu\u00e7\u00e3o no final deste ano – mas o d\u00f3lar caiu devido a indica\u00e7\u00f5es de que os aumentos das taxas do Fed podem n\u00e3o seguir o fim de seu programa de flexibiliza\u00e7\u00e3o quantitativa t\u00e3o rapidamente quanto o esperado. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

No entanto, com a taxa de pol\u00edtica do Fed mais alta do que as taxas de pol\u00edtica atualmente negativas do Banco do Jap\u00e3o (BOJ) e do Banco Central Europeu (BCE), o suporte para o d\u00f3lar deve permanecer intacto no curto prazo. O resultado final: quando a redu\u00e7\u00e3o gradual for conclu\u00edda em 2022, como \u00e9 esperado atualmente, o Fed ter\u00e1 mais flexibilidade para aumentar as taxas de curto prazo com base nas perspectivas para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o e o mercado de trabalho. Em compara\u00e7\u00e3o, outros grandes bancos centrais parecem propensos a manter pol\u00edticas f\u00e1ceis.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A taxa de juros do Fed est\u00e1 acima das de outros grandes bancos centrais<\/strong> 
 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg. Data reflects the Fed\u2019s federal funds rate upper target, the BOE official bank rate, the BOJ policy rate balance rate, and the ECB deposit facility announcement rate. Data as of 8\/30\/2021. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. O decl\u00ednio das perspectivas de crescimento global pode pesar sobre as moedas dos mercados emergentes (ME).<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

O d\u00f3lar subiu em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s moedas dos mercados emergentes em sinais de que o ritmo de crescimento global est\u00e1 diminuindo. As pol\u00edticas regulat\u00f3rias e de cr\u00e9dito da China se espalharam pelos pa\u00edses emergentes asi\u00e1ticos. O decl\u00ednio no crescimento do cr\u00e9dito e o aumento do controle regulat\u00f3rio de alguns setores levaram a um crescimento econ\u00f4mico mais lento e contribu\u00edram para uma queda nos pre\u00e7os das commodities. O impulso de cr\u00e9dito da China acompanha a taxa de crescimento do cr\u00e9dito na China – em julho, a taxa de crescimento anual do cr\u00e9dito era de -5,29%. A queda provavelmente pesar\u00e1 sobre o yuan chin\u00eas (CNY) em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao d\u00f3lar americano.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A taxa de crescimento do novo cr\u00e9dito da China desacelerou<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg Economics China Credit Impulse 12-Month Net Change (CHBGREVA Index). The credit impulse is the change in new credit issued as a proportion of gross domestic product. Monthly data as of July 2021. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dado que a China \u00e9 um dos principais parceiros comerciais dos EUA, \u00e9 a segunda moeda com maior peso no \u00edndice de d\u00f3lar ponderado pelo com\u00e9rcio do Fed. Isso significa que um CNY mais fraco se traduz em um d\u00f3lar ponderado pelo com\u00e9rcio mais forte. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A China \u00e9 o segundo maior peso no \u00edndice do d\u00f3lar ponderado pelo com\u00e9rcio do Fed<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve\u2019s Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar. Data as of 2021. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

O decl\u00ednio no crescimento da China tamb\u00e9m afeta as economias de mercado emergentes que exportam commodities para a China. As compras mais baixas de commodities se traduzem em pre\u00e7os mais baixos de commodities, mantendo as moedas dos mercados emergentes baixas e o d\u00f3lar americano em alta.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

No longo prazo, o d\u00f3lar enfrenta algum risco<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Olhando para dois a cinco anos, somos menos positivos. Os grandes d\u00e9ficits or\u00e7ament\u00e1rios e em conta corrente – ou comerciais – e as perspectivas de uma recupera\u00e7\u00e3o global mais ampla devem exercer press\u00e3o baixista sobre o d\u00f3lar no longo prazo. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aumento dos d\u00e9ficits em conta corrente tendem a levar a um d\u00f3lar mais fraco no longo prazo<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg. Federal Reserve trade-weighted dollar index and the U.S. current account balance as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) (USTWBGD Index, EHCAUS Index). Quarterly data as of March 2021. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estaremos observando os rendimentos e os fluxos de portf\u00f3lio em busca de sinais de que os investidores est\u00e3o trocando os ativos denominados em d\u00f3lares por outras moedas. Se isso ocorrer, a queda do d\u00f3lar daria um impulso aos investimentos internacionais. Quando chegar a hora, mudaremos nossa vis\u00e3o de acordo. Nesse \u00ednterim, \u00e9 prov\u00e1vel que o d\u00f3lar suba. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

O que considerar agora<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esperamos que o d\u00f3lar se fortale\u00e7a moderadamente nos pr\u00f3ximos meses. Um d\u00f3lar mais forte geralmente \u00e9 negativo para os pre\u00e7os das commodities e reduz os retornos sobre os investimentos internacionais. Estamos mantendo uma vis\u00e3o neutra para t\u00edtulos de mercados emergentes e globais (n\u00e3o denominados em d\u00f3lares americanos). Sempre que os rendimentos est\u00e3o em n\u00edveis t\u00e3o baixos, sen\u00e3o negativos, no mercado global de t\u00edtulos, o desempenho do \u00edndice mais amplo tende a acompanhar mais de perto o movimento do d\u00f3lar. O d\u00f3lar mais forte no ano at\u00e9 agora pesou no mercado global de t\u00edtulos. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

O d\u00f3lar mais forte gerou retornos med\u00edocres para os t\u00edtulos globais<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg. Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Bond Index (LG38TRUU Index). Daily data as of 8\/27\/2021. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para ser claro, nossa perspectiva neutra para renda fixa internacional n\u00e3o \u00e9 subponderada – ainda \u00e9 importante ter exposi\u00e7\u00e3o a renda fixa internacional para fornecer diversifica\u00e7\u00e3o a uma carteira de t\u00edtulos. Tamb\u00e9m sugerimos: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

  •  Manter uma dura\u00e7\u00e3o abaixo do benchmark em t\u00edtulos globais (ex-EUA).<\/strong> \u00c9 crucial ter em mente que a dura\u00e7\u00e3o, ou sensibilidade do pre\u00e7o \u00e0s varia\u00e7\u00f5es das taxas, dos t\u00edtulos globais \u00e9 maior do que o amplo \u00edndice de t\u00edtulos agregados dos EUA. Seja cauteloso sobre o quanto a dura\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 adicionada \u00e0 carteira a partir das participa\u00e7\u00f5es de t\u00edtulos globais. <\/li>
  •  Procure oportunidades de se reequilibrar para o peso-alvo da renda fixa internacional.<\/strong> \u00c9 prov\u00e1vel que os t\u00edtulos internacionais n\u00e3o tenham acompanhado outros investimentos de renda fixa este ano, levando os investidores a ficarem abaixo do peso. Tente adquirir t\u00edtulos de renda fixa internacionais por um pre\u00e7o mais barato quando os spreads sobre os t\u00edtulos do Tesouro aumentarem. <\/li>
  •  Mantenha as expectativas sob controle.<\/strong> A principal raz\u00e3o para manter um peso neutro na renda fixa internacional \u00e9 manter uma carteira de t\u00edtulos mais diversificada e evitar o timing do mercado. Como tal, \u00e9 improv\u00e1vel que a renda fixa internacional seja o \u201cganha-p\u00e3o\u201d do seu portf\u00f3lio t\u00e3o cedo. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

     Entre em contato com um representante da Schwab para quaisquer perguntas e orienta\u00e7\u00e3o mais personalizada. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Os investidores que det\u00eam ativos estrangeiros com exposi\u00e7\u00e3o ao d\u00f3lar dos EUA tiveram um passeio vol\u00e1til no ano at\u00e9 o momento: alta no primeiro trimestre, queda no segundo trimestre e recupera\u00e7\u00e3o no terceiro trimestre. Agora que o d\u00f3lar est\u00e1 perto da maior alta do ano, a alta pode continuar? Acreditamos que sim no curto prazo, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_front_end_style_editor":"no","ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"0","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"off","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nDollar Outlook: Can the Rally Continue? - Bankshop Investimentos<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bankshop.com.br\/es\/2021\/09\/14\/dollar-outlook-can-the-rally-continue\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dollar Outlook: Can the Rally Continue? - Bankshop Investimentos\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Os investidores que det\u00eam ativos estrangeiros com exposi\u00e7\u00e3o ao d\u00f3lar dos EUA tiveram um passeio vol\u00e1til no ano at\u00e9 o momento: alta no primeiro trimestre, queda no segundo trimestre e recupera\u00e7\u00e3o no terceiro trimestre. Agora que o d\u00f3lar est\u00e1 perto da maior alta do ano, a alta pode continuar? 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Agora que o d\u00f3lar est\u00e1 perto da maior alta do ano, a alta pode continuar? 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